The IMF is forecasting global growth will rise from an estimated 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021, according to its World Economic Outlook Update released today. Although there are few visible signs of turning points yet in the global macroeconomic data, it supports its forecast with the following points:
- Market sentiment has been boosted by tentatives signs that manufacturing activity and global trade are bottoming out.
- A broad-based shift toward accommodative monetary policy.
- Intermittent favorable news on US-China trade negotiations.
- Diminished fears of a no-deal Brexit.
For the US economy, the Fund is expecting growth to moderate from 2.3 percent in 2019 to 2 percent in 2020 and declining further to 1.7 percent in 2021. It bases its view on the fading fiscal support from the 2017 tax overhaul and waning support of any further loosening of monetary policy.